RISK ANALYSIS OF THE AMANAH CENTER BUILDING CONSTRUCTION PROJECT USING THE BOWTIE METHOD
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55766/sujst9139Keywords:
Risk analysis, Construction project, Bowtie method, Probability impact matrixAbstract
Building construction projects face uncertainties that may affect time, cost, and quality goals. This study aims to identify, categorize, and analyze the dominant risks in the Amanah Center Building Project in Ladong Village, Aceh Besar, using the Bowtie method. The Amanah Center is a large-scale project with a total area of 14,646 m², which is susceptible to various risks. The risk factors analyzed include labor risks, contractual risks, design and technology risks, execution risks, material and equipment risks, and force majeure risks. Data were collected through interviews and surveys with project stakeholders, and risks were assessed using a probability-impact matrix on a 1-5 Likert scale. The results show that design changes represent the highest risk factor, with a mean value of 3.19, indicating frequent occurrence. The probability impact matrix further reveals that design and technology risks, particularly design changes, pose a moderate-risk level (score 9.19), which in practice may cause delays of up to two weeks and cost increases of around 10% of affected activities. The Bowtie analysis identifies two key top events: (1) design and technology risks, leading to delays and rework, mitigated through design review and schedule adjustments; and (2) material and equipment risks, associated with poor material quality and price escalation, mitigated through supplier diversification and procurement planning. This study not only provides valuable insights into project risk management but also offers practical recommendations for project managers, emphasizing stricter design review processes and more resilient procurement strategies.
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