SIMULATING THE DISTRIBUTION OF FUTURE LAND USE CHANGE IN NAKHON RATCHASIMA, THAILAND
Keywords:
Land use, CA-Markov, distribution, spatial, GISAbstract
We studied the future land changes for sustainable land use planning within 20 years in Nakhon Ratchasima province, Thailand. CA-Markov integrated model with GIS was applied to forecast land use changed. The land use map from the Land development department, Thailand years 2007, 2011, and 2015 classified to 9 classes were used. Classes selected from major pollution sources and area sizes were urban and built-up land, paddy field, corn, sugarcane, cassava, other agriculture, forest, water body, and miscellaneous land. land use map year 2019, 2023, 2027, 2031, and 2035 are the destination of the land use prediction. Percent accuracy was 91.46% with 0.016% of total area error between predicted and actual land use map of 2015. The results of this simulation showed that the area and characteristics of each LU type of each predicted year. However, the area of urban and built-up land, cassava cultivation, and water body were increased by 4.22%, 8.29%, and 0.8% respectively. Meanwhile, corn cultivation, other agriculture, and sugarcane were decreased by 24.15%, 11.76%, and 6.89% respectively. The area for paddy field, forests, water body appear low changed or no changed. The distribution of community forms has expanded from the center of Nakhon Ratchasima, which is a large urban community and spread out along the major roads. The most other agricultural distribution that does not include paddy field spread out on the west, east, and southeast of the province. The most increasing area is cassava that substitutes the area of corn, sugarcane, and other agriculture.
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