EVALUATION OF ADDITIVE AND EXTENDED ADDITIVE HOLT-WINTERS METHODS: ONE-YEAR AHEAD FORECASTING OF CRUDE PALM OIL PRODUCTION IN THAILAND
Keywords:
Holt-Winters, forecasting, one-year ahead, crude palm oil production, ThailandAbstract
Evaluation of a traditional additive Holt-Winters (AHW) method and an extended additive Holts-Winters (EAHW) method for one-year ahead forecasting of crude palm oil production in Thailand is presented in this paper. The crude palm oil production figures from January 2005 to December 2018 (14 years), collected from the database of the Department of Internal Trade, Ministry of Commerce, Thailand are used as input data to be forecast. As investigated in our previous works, the traditional AHW and the recently proposed EAHW methods provided good accuracy in the case of short-term forecasting (i.e. 3 months) of crude palm oil production, but how well they work for one-year ahead has not been studied. Therefore, the AHW and the EAHW methods used for forecasting crude palm oil production of the years 2018 and 2019 are evaluated in this paper. The trends of the forecast data (i.e. monthly crude palm oil production throughout the year) are presented, and the findings are also analyzed in comparison with the related statistical data gathered from the past. Our study reveals that both the AHW and EAHW methods can be used to forecast one-year ahead data. They show the same forecasting error as measured by mean absolute percentage error, and they also provide the same trend of the forecast data for the years 2018 and 2019. However, we have found that, for the year 2018.
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