SNOWMELT RUNOFF ANALYSIS AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE UPPER PUNATSANG CHU BASIN, BHUTAN
Keywords:
Snowmelt runoff analysis, SRM Model, Impact of temperature change, Punatsang Chu Basin, BhutanAbstract
In the an area like Bhutan, the accessing and monitoring of glacier and snow melt is difficult due to its the unfriendly and rugged terrain,; thus, the Ssnowmelt Rrunoff Mmodel (SRM) with remote sensing data offers the potential for furnishing information to improve water resources management and decision making. The main objective of the study is to estimate runoff during the snowmelt period and the impact of hypothetical temperature change on streamflow. Herewith, the model input data include basin characteristics, variables, and parameters to execute the model. The processes are routinely operated by a calibration and validation process and accuracy assesses assessments with standard measurements. The output includes runoff volume and average runoff with a hydrograph for a the melting season (April- August) of the years 2005-2009. Besides, the impact of temperature change on the streamflow are is investigated using three 3 different hypothetical scenarios: (1). T + 1˚C, (2) T + 2˚C, and (3) T + 3˚C. The simulated average runoff volumes were 446.08, 416.49, 422.51, 480.19, and 440.29 m3/s, respectively, for the years 2005-2009. The computed discharge is was then correlated with the measured discharge and it was found that the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency efficiency rangingrange: was 70 – 93%, the absolute percent bias: ranging ranged from 3.45 to 5.18%, and the difference in volume different rangingranged from: -5.18 to 3.45 for all the hydrological years. Based on the hydrograph, it was observed that the SRM model has simulated the daily flows reasonably well showing a generally a good agreement with the daily observed flows except for a few peaks. However, it was found that the SRM model has some limitations to for modelling the a period where when there is an occurrence of extreme weather conditions like a cyclone, storm, and or heavy rainfall. In the case of the impact of temperature change on the streamflow, it was observed that with every 1˚C increase in every 1˚C of the average temperature, an the average runoff increased by 7%.
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