A Model for Forecasting the Export Quantity of Orchids from Thailand

Abstract

The objective of this study was to construct an appropriate forecasting model for the export quantity of orchids from Thailand via statistical methods. The monthly average data gathered from the Office of Agricultural Economics website during the 133 months from January 2011 to January 2022 were divided into 2 datasets. The first dataset consisted of 121 months from January 2011 to January 2021 used to construct forecasting models via the use of 8 statistical methods, namely, Box-Jenkins method, Holt’s exponential smoothing method, Brown’s exponential smoothing method, damped trend exponential smoothing method, simple seasonal exponential smoothing method, Winters’ additive exponential smoothing method, Winters’ multiplicative exponential smoothing method, and combining forecasts method. The second dataset consisted of 12 months from February 2021 to January 2022 used to compare the accuracy of the forecasting models via the lowest mean absolute percentage error and root mean squared error. The results indicated that the most accurate method was the damped trend exponential smoothing method.