Cross-impact analysis of factors affecting urban mobility in Chiang Mai, Thailand

Orasa Tamasarangkul; Poon Thiengburanathum; Mongkonkorn Srivichai

Authors

Orasa Tamasarangkul Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, 50200, Thailand
Poon Thiengburanathum Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, 50200, Thailand
Mongkonkorn Srivichai Center of Creative Engineering for Sustainable Development, Faculty of Engineering, Rajamangala University of Technology Lanna, Chiang Rai, 57120, Thailand

Keywords:

Chiang Mai, cross impact-analysis, Ethnographic Delphi Futures Research, factors influencing, urban mobility, urban planning

Abstract

This paper aims to explore urban mobility and analyze the related empirical probability factors in Chiang Mai. Cross-impact analysis (CIA) techniques and Ethnographic Delphi Futures Research technique (EDFR) were used as tools. The data was collected by interviews with 10 experts, people who have experience in urban planning and urban mobility development from government and the private sectors. The results showed 13 factors affecting urban mobility in Chiang Mai. Analysis revealed that the main factors affecting urban mobility are accessibility, comfortable travel, and travel safety. Next, the main factors were analyzed to find probable futures for urban mobility. Then, Monte-Carlo simulation technique was used to create and randomize 26 scenarios related to factors affecting urban mobility. In conclusion, this study found that this model was able to define the factors that affect the possibility of developing urban mobility in Chiang Mai. All affected factors were related through the development in urban mobility and can be used as variables in decision-making for urban planning, infrastructure development, and investment in the future. Therefore, the model can be used as a tool for urban planners and developers for urban decision preparation in the future.

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