Effects of Land Use Change and Climate Projections on Erosion and Sediment Transport in the Kricik River Basin, Indonesia: A Modeling Study
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.59796/jcst.V16N2.2026.177Keywords:
erosion, sedimentation, Kricik River, land use, MUSLE, climate changeAbstract
This research assessed the effects of land use change and climate change on the rates of erosion and sediment transport volumes. To quantify erosion and sediment mobilization, the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation was applied in conjunction with sediment transport analysis. Precipitation projections from the Community Earth System Model Version 2 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5 scenario were employed to evaluate future climate impacts. Model validation was improved using high-resolution Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) footage. The study area was the Kricik River watershed, located in East Java, Indonesia. This watershed strongly affects the hydrological and sedimentary processes of the broader Brantas River basin. A comparative analysis of land use across 2010, 2021, and 2025 revealed a decline in forest and plantation cover, accompanied by an increase in dryland and urban development. Under the 2021 condition, the design peak discharge increased from 22.82 m³/s to 24.97 m³/s, while sediment yield rose to 101.94 tons, up from 75.21 tons in 2010. Climate change forecasts for 2026–2060 under SSP2-4.5 showed a substantial increase in hydrological and geomorphological hazards, with the expected peak discharge estimated at 30.83 m³/s. The sediment yield in this scenario escalated to 129.05 tons, whereas the capacity of debris flow transport increased from 80,596.71 m³ to 99,484.95 m³. The study provides actionable insights for watershed managers and policymakers, highlighting the importance of climate adaptation and sustainable land use planning to alleviate future hazards of erosion, sedimentation, and flooding. The findings emphasize that policymakers should prioritize the development and enforcement of land use zoning regulations and watershed conservation policies that limit impervious surface expansion, encourage reforestation or agroforestry, and protect upstream buffer zones to control runoff coefficients.
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